In the following discussion on Sakeliga’s Beleidsradar Podsending, Russell Lamberti (ETM Macro Advisors) shares his thoughts on the South African economy after moving out of the Covid-19 regulatory restrictions. We consider the shape of a possible recovery.

The episode is hosted by Gerhard van Onselen (Sakeliga Senior Analyst).

Episode outline:
01:45 – How are entrepreneurs making sense of current post-lockdown conditions?
03:45 – Some indicators and metrics in Q3 (retail, consumer markets, property markets, etc.)
06:30 – The impact of a “K-shaped” recovery
09:11 – Beneficiaries, market consolidation and labour market effects
18:26 – Business during recession, depression or “repression”
22:52 – ANC’s central planning conundrum: fiscal challenges and national balance sheet destruction (vs. GDP protection)
28:00 – Risks of likely ANC policy responses and paying the piper
33:48 – Climate Lockdowns? The risk of the state after Covid
37:20 – Thoughts for business owners and corporate strategy