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69. Escape from Russia: Rewiring Europe - mar22

69. Escape from Russia: Rewiring Europe - mar22
Mar 1, 2022 · 23m 26s

The war in Ukraine is a total gamechanger. Beyond the personal drama and misery inflicted on millions of human beings, it triggers a tremor in the world of Energy of...

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The war in Ukraine is a total gamechanger. Beyond the personal drama and misery inflicted on millions of human beings, it triggers a tremor in the world of Energy of a magnitude not seen since the Oil shocks of the 70’s.
As Energy Security becomes front and center, Gerard and Laurent try to understand the short-term implications on the Energy landscape.
Are we moving away from the energy transition or are we going to align energy security with the energy transition?
Politicians have a chance to rise and make radical decisions. We have the human and financial capital; we have the technologies. We can implement a deep decarbonization than will also benefit Energy Security.

It is about Rewiring Europe, electrifying heating and transports, building networks faster, full digitization, higher level of resilience. Rewiring Europe will require significant changes in mindset, thinking, regulation, and in investments. Rewiring Europe will bring bold ideas to fruition and require bravery in implementation. But let’s be clear, Rewiring Europe must be done in an economic environment where financial institutions want to invest, as the sole burden of the transition cannot be borne solely by the ratepayers or the taxpayers.
If we wean ourselves off oil and gas, we will be free!
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Proposals:
Short term
1. Reduce demand for natural gas – Practically, Germany and Belgium may both have to delay closures of nuclear plants and the same may need to happen for coal plants across the continent.
2. Move any energy purchases away from Russia – Practically, we may need to rethink the closure of North Sea and NL gas wells but also be prepared to import energy at higher prices from other parts of the world.
3. Fill up storage tanks – Europe needs to buy as much as it can in terms of uranium and fossil fuels to ensure we have enough energy to keep the lights on and our economies working.
4. Help energy sensitive customers – Practically, governments will need to help people and companies through these difficult times.

Medium term
1. Deeply electrify the energy system – The quickest way to decarbonise is to electrify as much as possible of the energy system. To that we need radical regulatory change to ensure a speedy and low cost transition. This starts with improving planning laws to allow quick build out of renewables and the necessary grid infrastructure.
2. Enable low cost electricity – In many European countries, electricity is the most expensive way to power your car and heat your home. The recent surges in natural gas prices have now indirectly made electricity even more expensive. There is a whole pile of measures than can be put in place, such as a) grid regulatory reforms which force competition and b) cost efficiency improvements to wholesale power market reforms which move away from the marginal cost pricing. In addition, taxes and other charges should be removed to ensure that electricity becomes the cheapest form of energy.
3. Invest in clean energy and storage – self explanatory
4. Embrace energy efficiency – self explanatory
5. Cut demand for fossil fuels – Heat pumps and EVs. In addition, it may well be that Europe needs to bring in a border carbon adjustment tax to ensure that European jobs and emissions are simply exported to another part of the world.
6. Change how Europe does innovation – stop sprinkling funds around to please lobbyists and PR firms, focus research funding on zero-carbon and storage
7. Bring together national security, decarbonization and industrial interests - self explanatory

As Winston Churchill was working on the establishment of the United Nations after WW2, he famously said "Never let a good crisis go to waste." Let’s focus on Rewiring Europe.
Check Gerard’s blog on the Rewiring Europe
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we-need-rewire-europe-learn-from-past-energy-policy-gerard-reid/?trackingId=bYeoeBKtMTQf0jPS65bLAA%3D%3D
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Comments
WilfiredSmts

WilfiredSmts

2 years ago

I fully agree with your recommendation, but do not agree that this will be feasible in the short term. In particular the much needed grid regulatory reform. I have been working with European TSOs and DSOs over the past 15 years advising them on strategy, lead cost reduction programs and IT transformations. Although many have very good intentions and are staffed with highly capable engineers, the market design is not condusive to integrating distributed renewables. Given the high complexity of grid access and tarriff regulation, I see no realistic prospect on how the grid regulations would reform. The regulator is often not powerful enough to push through this reform. The grid asset owners have no interest in changing (to protect their regulated return) and if the owner is an incumbent utility, there certainly is no interest for them to enable access of more renewables eating away the profits from their gas, coal, hydro and nuclear. My belief is that a grid reform will have to happen at grass-root level. By balancing supply/demand at the home, plant, street and industrial area level. I believe in privatizing local grids or even building new, private grids. This will take away the responsibility from grid operators and, unfortunately, reduce their asset base and thur returns. This will be a self-reinforcing cycle whereby less assets, lead to less returns, leading to need to sell off assets, etc. We tried for over 20 years in Europe after unbundling of the power system and have gotten not very far. A coming tidal wave of electrification of heating and transport will force consumers and private companies to find alternatives to the current grid regulation. "behind the meter" solutions will prevail...
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Author Laurent Segalen + Gerard Reid
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