Trump vs Biden, McConnell Successor: What Are the Odds?
Apr 3, 2024 ·
39m 58s
Get the inside scoop on the race to replace Mitch McConnell and the odds of Trump vs Biden in this intriguing political post. What are the odds? Long-time Senate Republican...
show more
Get the inside scoop on the race to replace Mitch McConnell and the odds of Trump vs Biden in this intriguing political post.
What are the odds?
Long-time Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who has represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, has announced that he’ll step down from his leadership post in November. And so, the race is on to replace him, making for one of the most intriguing political stories of the year – aside from the presidential election and the battle for control of Congress itself.
What’s going to happen? Who better to ask than a veteran professional political gambler, oddsmaker and analyst? Check out our interview with Paul Krishnamurty, political oddsmaker and analyst for www.BetOnline.ag.
Paul began betting on politics in the UK in 2001 and in the U.S. in 2008. He’s been an analyst for Betfair, the world’s largest betting exchange, and since 2020 has been the political oddsmaker for BetOnline.ag.
On the show, Krishnamurty says the odds favor Sen. John Thune (SD) and John Cornyn (TX) each have about a 46 percent chance of succeeding McConnell, depending on what happens between now and the election.
On the presidential front, this veteran oddsmaker puts Biden ahead of Trump as of now, saying that the Democrat's chances are improving, although third party candidates could cost him votes. He predicts that the criminal cases against Trump will result in at least one conviction, but that the twice-impeached former President will not serve prison time.
What does he have to say about Trump selling $400 sneakers and $60 Bibles to raise money?
Who will he pick as his vice presidential running mate?
What about Congress? What are the odds that the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and maintain their edge in the Senate? Check out the episode to find out.
By the way, here are some questions we discussed with Paul:
Q. Since we opened with the tease about Mitch McConnell, let’s talk about that. Looks like we have three Johns – all white guys in their 60s – leading the race to succeed him. What are the odds of that?
Q. Now I know you don’t actually lay down bets on such races, but if you WERE to bet on this one, who would you pick – and why?
Q. Let’s go to Trump. He lucked out the other day when that judge in New York cut the fraud bond that he must pay from $464 million to $175 million, and gave him an extra 10 days to come up with the cash. Until that happened, there was talk Trump might be forced to declare bankruptcy. Have those odds changed?
Q. What about the Georgia case, which has been tainted by the scandal involving Fulton County prosecutor Fani T. Willis hiring her lover to help lead the Georgia election meddling case against Trump. What are the odds that Trump will be convicted there?
Q. How about the federal case involving the Jan. 6 insurrection that’s being led by special prosecutor Jack Smith? Will Trump be convicted there? Will he go to prison?
Q. OK, let’s turn to the presidential election. How do you see that shaking out? What are the odds that either Trump or Biden – or both – will be replaced as their party’s nominee?
Q. If Trump is convicted in any of these cases, will that doom his chances for election?
Q. Is Nikki Haley still viable as a candidate to replace Trump? Maybe at the GOP convention?
Q. What about Trump VP picks? Who’s really in play?
Q. The Supreme Court is considering whether to ban an abortion drug in the latest challenge to women’s rights. Will abortion be a deciding factor in the election?
Q. How about age and overall health of the candidates? It’s a problem for Biden, but he’s trying to turn that against Trump as well? Could it be a deciding factor in the election? Who has the edge on this one?
Q. What about the House of Representatives? Do the Democrats have a realistic shot at taking control?
Q. How about the Senate? Can the Democrats hold on there? What races should we be watching?
Q. What’s your overall prediction as to where we’ll stand politically after election day?
Q. Tell us about Betonline.ag. Can people bet on politics there?
show less
What are the odds?
Long-time Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who has represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, has announced that he’ll step down from his leadership post in November. And so, the race is on to replace him, making for one of the most intriguing political stories of the year – aside from the presidential election and the battle for control of Congress itself.
What’s going to happen? Who better to ask than a veteran professional political gambler, oddsmaker and analyst? Check out our interview with Paul Krishnamurty, political oddsmaker and analyst for www.BetOnline.ag.
Paul began betting on politics in the UK in 2001 and in the U.S. in 2008. He’s been an analyst for Betfair, the world’s largest betting exchange, and since 2020 has been the political oddsmaker for BetOnline.ag.
On the show, Krishnamurty says the odds favor Sen. John Thune (SD) and John Cornyn (TX) each have about a 46 percent chance of succeeding McConnell, depending on what happens between now and the election.
On the presidential front, this veteran oddsmaker puts Biden ahead of Trump as of now, saying that the Democrat's chances are improving, although third party candidates could cost him votes. He predicts that the criminal cases against Trump will result in at least one conviction, but that the twice-impeached former President will not serve prison time.
What does he have to say about Trump selling $400 sneakers and $60 Bibles to raise money?
Who will he pick as his vice presidential running mate?
What about Congress? What are the odds that the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and maintain their edge in the Senate? Check out the episode to find out.
By the way, here are some questions we discussed with Paul:
Q. Since we opened with the tease about Mitch McConnell, let’s talk about that. Looks like we have three Johns – all white guys in their 60s – leading the race to succeed him. What are the odds of that?
Q. Now I know you don’t actually lay down bets on such races, but if you WERE to bet on this one, who would you pick – and why?
Q. Let’s go to Trump. He lucked out the other day when that judge in New York cut the fraud bond that he must pay from $464 million to $175 million, and gave him an extra 10 days to come up with the cash. Until that happened, there was talk Trump might be forced to declare bankruptcy. Have those odds changed?
Q. What about the Georgia case, which has been tainted by the scandal involving Fulton County prosecutor Fani T. Willis hiring her lover to help lead the Georgia election meddling case against Trump. What are the odds that Trump will be convicted there?
Q. How about the federal case involving the Jan. 6 insurrection that’s being led by special prosecutor Jack Smith? Will Trump be convicted there? Will he go to prison?
Q. OK, let’s turn to the presidential election. How do you see that shaking out? What are the odds that either Trump or Biden – or both – will be replaced as their party’s nominee?
Q. If Trump is convicted in any of these cases, will that doom his chances for election?
Q. Is Nikki Haley still viable as a candidate to replace Trump? Maybe at the GOP convention?
Q. What about Trump VP picks? Who’s really in play?
Q. The Supreme Court is considering whether to ban an abortion drug in the latest challenge to women’s rights. Will abortion be a deciding factor in the election?
Q. How about age and overall health of the candidates? It’s a problem for Biden, but he’s trying to turn that against Trump as well? Could it be a deciding factor in the election? Who has the edge on this one?
Q. What about the House of Representatives? Do the Democrats have a realistic shot at taking control?
Q. How about the Senate? Can the Democrats hold on there? What races should we be watching?
Q. What’s your overall prediction as to where we’ll stand politically after election day?
Q. Tell us about Betonline.ag. Can people bet on politics there?
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