The Obama ground game is the whole ball of wax. It is difficult to overstate the importance of non-white turnout to Obama’s chances. Obama’s 2008 victory was built on historic showings from traditionally low-turnout groups, including young voters and African Americans, and most polls suggest that Obama is holding strong among non-white voters. If non-white voters turn out and support Obama to the same extent that they did in 2008 (26 percent of the electorate, 80 percent for Obama), then Obama’s 38.8 percent share of the white vote would give Obama more than 49 percent of the national popular vote, even without winning any additional undecided voters.Nate Cohn New Republic