https://www.spreaker.com/show/global-guessing-weekly-podcastenPoliticsCopyright Clay Graubardhttps://d3wo5wojvuv7l.cloudfront.net/t_rss_itunes_square_1400/images.spreaker.com/original/d47011255702ffa4ac76a10e63b65684.jpghttps://www.spreaker.com/show/global-guessing-weekly-podcastThu, 02 Mar 2023 06:03:04 +0000Clay GraubardClay Graubardfeeds@spreaker.comGlobal Guessing Weekly Podcast is a new weekly podcast hosted by the co-founders of globalguessing.com, Clay Graubard and Andrew Eaddy. GGWP discusses geopolitics and the science of quantified forecasting, bringing on experts from subjects ranging...cleanepisodichttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/a-conversation-on-media-narratives-and-fMaximum Truth Substack and ElectionBettingOdds.com – to discuss the current military, political, and economic situation in Russia as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. As a former journalist for organizations like ABC and Fox, Maxim has deep experience operating within  mainstream media companies. And as a result of his time working for those institutions, he has focused his career on providing alternatives to mainstream media narratives, including the current war in Ukraine. Maxim has been covering (and forecasting) the war in Ukraine throughout March, providing nuanced perspectives on the crisis. From casting doubt on the severity of the current sanctions regime impacting the Russian economy, to sharing sentiment polls from Russian citizens, Maxim consistently provides interesting vantage points on this conflict. Maxim also spent time in Eastern Europe before our conversation, and talks about his experience in the region and how that has impacted his analysis.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/bab25ac6-bac7-3685-8f5a-9bf2883c9ef5Thu, 31 Mar 2022 14:04:06 +0000Clay GraubardIn this podcast episode (recorded on 3/23/22) we spoke with Maxim Lott – the mind behind the https://maximumtruth.substack.com/ Substack and https://electionbettingodds.com/ – to discuss the current military, political, and economic situation in...Maximum Truth Substack and ElectionBettingOdds.com – to discuss the current military, political, and economic situation in Russia as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. As a former journalist for organizations like ABC and Fox, Maxim has deep experience operating within  mainstream media companies. And as a result of his time working for those institutions, he has focused his career on providing alternatives to mainstream media narratives, including the current war in Ukraine. Maxim has been covering (and forecasting) the war in Ukraine throughout March, providing nuanced perspectives on the crisis. From casting doubt on the severity of the current sanctions regime impacting the Russian economy, to sharing sentiment polls from Russian citizens, Maxim consistently provides interesting vantage points on this conflict. Maxim also spent time in Eastern Europe before our conversation, and talks about his experience in the region and how that has impacted his analysis.]]>2238clean30fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/tom-chivers-on-nuance-numeracy-and-forecUnHerd, and has bylines with New York Times, Guardian, New Scientist, and The Telegraph. He often writes data-driven rebuttals to topics that are being primarily depicted in one way in the media, interjecting nuance into the conversations. In many ways, the same exercise as distinguishing signals from noise. Conducting journalism with a forecaster’s mindset. He's also written two books, The AI Does Not Hate You in 2019 and How to Read Numbers in 2021, and writes about similar topics discussed in our communities, including effective altruism, rationality, and forecasting. To our knowledge, Tom is one of the most prominent journalists writing about and covering quantified forecasts. In June of last year, Tom assembled a panel of superforecasters for an article on whether China will invade Taiwan and has started to make his own predictions too! You can follow Tom on Twitter: @TomChivers.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/134b3166-244a-3c2f-b35c-96714cedbb14Tue, 15 Feb 2022 16:59:23 +0000Clay GraubardIn this podcast episode, we sat down with Tom Chivers—author, journalist, and science writer for The i—to have a conversation on forecasting and the news media. We talked about his background in the media industry, his frustrations with mainstream...UnHerd, and has bylines with New York Times, Guardian, New Scientist, and The Telegraph. He often writes data-driven rebuttals to topics that are being primarily depicted in one way in the media, interjecting nuance into the conversations. In many ways, the same exercise as distinguishing signals from noise. Conducting journalism with a forecaster’s mindset. He's also written two books, The AI Does Not Hate You in 2019 and How to Read Numbers in 2021, and writes about similar topics discussed in our communities, including effective altruism, rationality, and forecasting. To our knowledge, Tom is one of the most prominent journalists writing about and covering quantified forecasts. In June of last year, Tom assembled a panel of superforecasters for an article on whether China will invade Taiwan and has started to make his own predictions too! You can follow Tom on Twitter: @TomChivers.]]>3083clean29fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/tina-fordham-on-political-risk-geopolitiTina Fordham, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst, a London-based advisory business. Tina is one of the most veteran players in the political risk industry, beginning her career at Eurasia Group where she launched Eurasia Group's financial markets business, including leading the Lehman Brothers-Eurasia Group index—the first political risk index on Wall Street. While there she also led the roll-out of Eurasia Group's European business. Since then, Tina’s career has included roles as Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citigroup (the first position of its kind on Wall Street), as well as Member of the High-Level Panel for Women's Economic Empowerment—the first-ever UN High-Level Panel dedicated to promoting Women's Economic Empowerment. She also created her own framework for processing political risk, Vox Populi, which was born in the post-Arab Spring era that we will talk about in-depth. Today we will discuss Tina’s impressive career, her risk framework, and some specific forecasts she has made in her many roles as well as her thoughts on quantified forecasting and much more. We are very excited about this interview, and we think you will enjoy this one!]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/22cc3a33-fa51-3a70-871e-b9774251b789Tue, 01 Feb 2022 13:12:04 +0000Clay GraubardAnd we’re back! In this year’s first podcast, we are speaking with https://uk.linkedin.com/in/tina-fordham-08433519, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at https://www.avonhurst.com/, a London-based advisory business. Tina is one of the...Tina Fordham, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst, a London-based advisory business. Tina is one of the most veteran players in the political risk industry, beginning her career at Eurasia Group where she launched Eurasia Group's financial markets business, including leading the Lehman Brothers-Eurasia Group index—the first political risk index on Wall Street. While there she also led the roll-out of Eurasia Group's European business. Since then, Tina’s career has included roles as Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citigroup (the first position of its kind on Wall Street), as well as Member of the High-Level Panel for Women's Economic Empowerment—the first-ever UN High-Level Panel dedicated to promoting Women's Economic Empowerment. She also created her own framework for processing political risk, Vox Populi, which was born in the post-Arab Spring era that we will talk about in-depth. Today we will discuss Tina’s impressive career, her risk framework, and some specific forecasts she has made in her many roles as well as her thoughts on quantified forecasting and much more. We are very excited about this interview, and we think you will enjoy this one!]]>3355clean28fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/forecasting-the-omicron-variant-with-juaJuan Cambeiro for answers. Juan Cambeiro is a Global Guessing alum, Good Judgment superforecaster, and Metaculus analyst, who placed first in IARPA's FOCUS Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting and was the former first-place COVID forecaster on Good Judgment Open. Juan recently wrote a fantastic article on Metaculus about the Omicron variant–providing a concise analysis of the variant from an epidemiological and public health perspective, while also offering five concrete forecasts about it. In this podcast, we'll talk to Juan about how he analyzed and understood the variant, chose and forecasted these five questions, and key signals he’s identified and looking out for in the future. We'll also chat about how policymakers and others should respond to the variant and understand the information from these forecasts. At the end, we'll discuss additional forecasting questions we should be asking to better understand the variant's impact on the pandemic. Learn more: https://globalguessing.com/forecasting-omicron-juan-cambeiro/ Note: This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2021. ]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/20932534-6951-34ff-84dd-f51873960784Thu, 09 Dec 2021 22:31:50 +0000Clay GraubardHow should we understand the Omicron relative to Delta? How does Omicron change the nature of the pandemic and what steps should we be taking in response? These questions require navigating and quantifying uncertainty, while also making forecasts...Juan Cambeiro for answers. Juan Cambeiro is a Global Guessing alum, Good Judgment superforecaster, and Metaculus analyst, who placed first in IARPA's FOCUS Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting and was the former first-place COVID forecaster on Good Judgment Open. Juan recently wrote a fantastic article on Metaculus about the Omicron variant–providing a concise analysis of the variant from an epidemiological and public health perspective, while also offering five concrete forecasts about it. In this podcast, we'll talk to Juan about how he analyzed and understood the variant, chose and forecasted these five questions, and key signals he’s identified and looking out for in the future. We'll also chat about how policymakers and others should respond to the variant and understand the information from these forecasts. At the end, we'll discuss additional forecasting questions we should be asking to better understand the variant's impact on the pandemic. Learn more: https://globalguessing.com/forecasting-omicron-juan-cambeiro/ Note: This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2021. ]]>2692clean27fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/the-ggwp-finale-almost-a-year-of-global-globalguessing.podbean.com/2ccdaec5-750c-3870-b826-74d67c6ae28bSun, 07 Nov 2021 15:25:54 +0000Clay GraubardIt's hard to imagine, but 51 weeks ago we launched Global Guessing with our inaugural forecast on the 2020 Burkina Faso Presidential Election. In the time since, we've released 43 podcast episodes, 34 forecasts, and a new newsletter. In today's final...4183clean26fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/manas-chawla-on-london-politica-geopolitglobalguessing.podbean.com/7c711c12-9957-3878-b40b-b261a778012fTue, 02 Nov 2021 20:04:40 +0000Clay GraubardDo consumers of geopolitical risk reports want accurate forecasts? You would think surely yes, but recurring listeners of our podcast know that in many cases individuals prefer vague verbiage over accountable, quantifiable forecasts. In this week's...3430clean25fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/david-mccullough-on-why-good-forecastingGlobal Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week we are joined by David McCullough, Managing Director of Government Operations and Superforecaster and Good Judgement Inc. Prior to joining Good Judgement, David was an underwater Archaeologist for over twenty years after receiving his Ph.D. in Maritime Archeology from the University of Glasgow. In this week's episode, we talked to David about his background in Archaeology and the ways in which his training helped him become an elite forecaster. Afterwards, we discussed the importance of creating good forecasting questions and the qualities associated with them. We also chatted with David the importance of pre-mortem analysis and the roadblocks hindering government and private-sector adoption of forecasting and the principles outlined in Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting. We really enjoyed speaking with David, finding his answers thoughtful and insightful. If you did as well, make sure to check out Good Judgement's upcoming Superforecasting Workshop on December 8th and 9th at 12:00 - 2:30pm EST.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/d34a8fde-58dd-3b20-bdce-f0afb124f763Sun, 24 Oct 2021 12:59:01 +0000Clay GraubardWelcome back to the https://globalguessing.com/tag/global-guessing-weekly-podcast/. This week we are joined by https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidamccullough/, Managing Director of Government Operations and Superforecaster and https://goodjudgment.com/....Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week we are joined by David McCullough, Managing Director of Government Operations and Superforecaster and Good Judgement Inc. Prior to joining Good Judgement, David was an underwater Archaeologist for over twenty years after receiving his Ph.D. in Maritime Archeology from the University of Glasgow. In this week's episode, we talked to David about his background in Archaeology and the ways in which his training helped him become an elite forecaster. Afterwards, we discussed the importance of creating good forecasting questions and the qualities associated with them. We also chatted with David the importance of pre-mortem analysis and the roadblocks hindering government and private-sector adoption of forecasting and the principles outlined in Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting. We really enjoyed speaking with David, finding his answers thoughtful and insightful. If you did as well, make sure to check out Good Judgement's upcoming Superforecasting Workshop on December 8th and 9th at 12:00 - 2:30pm EST.]]>3645clean24fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/david-manheim-on-pandemic-preparedness-aGlobal Guessing Weekly Podcast, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum David Manheim, lead researcher for the human challenge trial advocacy group 1DaySooner who previously appeared on The Right Side of Maybe to discuss his accuracy in forecasting Covid vaccines. David received a PhD in Public Policy from Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. He has done work on a variety of grants and contracts to research existential risk mitigation, public health, computational modelling, and infectious disease epidemiology for organizations such as the RAND Corporation. In addition to his work with 1DaySooner, David currently works with the Foresight Institute, is a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc., and recently became a visiting professor at the Israel Institute of Technology "working to build interdisciplinary collaborations with technical researchers on the promises and risks of emerging technologies." In this episode, you'll hear David talk about his work in biosecurity including the recent report he worked on for the Council on Strategic Risks, a US think tank, and his work with 1DaySooner on human challenge trials to learn how this change in vaccine testing could save millions of lives. We also chatted with David about the role that quantified forecasting currently plays in government policy and discuss why the technique is under-utilized. Finally, we get David’s thoughts on real-money prediction markets and the importance of question-quality in both prediction markets and platforms. Note: This episode was recorded on July 29th.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/ed4f0bcc-5cb3-36b2-baff-868a188f93ebSun, 17 Oct 2021 15:26:54 +0000Clay GraubardAnd we're back! Welcome everyone to the eighteenth episode of the https://globalguessing.com/tag/global-guessing-weekly-podcast/, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum https://twitter.com/davidmanheim,...Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum David Manheim, lead researcher for the human challenge trial advocacy group 1DaySooner who previously appeared on The Right Side of Maybe to discuss his accuracy in forecasting Covid vaccines. David received a PhD in Public Policy from Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. He has done work on a variety of grants and contracts to research existential risk mitigation, public health, computational modelling, and infectious disease epidemiology for organizations such as the RAND Corporation. In addition to his work with 1DaySooner, David currently works with the Foresight Institute, is a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc., and recently became a visiting professor at the Israel Institute of Technology "working to build interdisciplinary collaborations with technical researchers on the promises and risks of emerging technologies." In this episode, you'll hear David talk about his work in biosecurity including the recent report he worked on for the Council on Strategic Risks, a US think tank, and his work with 1DaySooner on human challenge trials to learn how this change in vaccine testing could save millions of lives. We also chatted with David about the role that quantified forecasting currently plays in government policy and discuss why the technique is under-utilized. Finally, we get David’s thoughts on real-money prediction markets and the importance of question-quality in both prediction markets and platforms. Note: This episode was recorded on July 29th.]]>4003clean23fullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-17-w-john-fowler-international-intr
International Intrigue: https://www.internationalintrigue.io/
John Fowler: https://twitter.com/johnsnonsense

Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
​​​Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing
Facebook: https://facebook.com/globalguessing​​​
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-guessing/]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/2b818035-c23d-3c9a-ba17-a351c1ba68d1Sun, 11 Jul 2021 16:35:22 +0000Clay GraubardCareer paths rarely unfold linearly, and this week's guest is no exception. But his winding way in geopolitics (as he discusses) provided him with exceptional perspective which has surely informed his geopolitical chops. In this week's episode we sat...
International Intrigue: https://www.internationalintrigue.io/
John Fowler: https://twitter.com/johnsnonsense

Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
​​​Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing
Facebook: https://facebook.com/globalguessing​​​
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-guessing/]]>3007cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/juan-cambeiro-the-top-pandemic-forecaste
In this episode 6 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay and Andrew sat down with student, biostatistics student, and Metaculus summer analyst Juan Cambeiro to discuss his background in forecasting and work with Metaculus Pandemic. Juan placed first in Good Judgement Open's 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak forecasting challenge, and is currently in second place overall.

After discussing Juan's background in forecasting, we dove deep into three recent forecasts he made covering Mortgage Interest Rates, US COVID Deaths, and the Tokyo Summer Olympics. Two of the questions Juan got to the right side of maybe, while the third he ended up on the wrong side. We not only discussed what went well with his correct forecasts, but also explored potential sources of error with the third.

We also spoke with Juan about his information diet, how he goes about finding new sources, and the importance of forecasting for the world! Be sure to tune into this episode as you will learn a lot about good forecasting habits and how to perform well in tournaments.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/1e11f7f5-f336-34bf-bb84-8fc40f98d8e6Thu, 08 Jul 2021 18:38:28 +0000Clay GraubardSince beginning Global Guessing, we have noted that interdisciplinary approaches to forecasting have often borne positive results. Whether guests have come from the world of finance, academics, or biology, their ‘outside views’ have frequently...
In this episode 6 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay and Andrew sat down with student, biostatistics student, and Metaculus summer analyst Juan Cambeiro to discuss his background in forecasting and work with Metaculus Pandemic. Juan placed first in Good Judgement Open's 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak forecasting challenge, and is currently in second place overall.

After discussing Juan's background in forecasting, we dove deep into three recent forecasts he made covering Mortgage Interest Rates, US COVID Deaths, and the Tokyo Summer Olympics. Two of the questions Juan got to the right side of maybe, while the third he ended up on the wrong side. We not only discussed what went well with his correct forecasts, but also explored potential sources of error with the third.

We also spoke with Juan about his information diet, how he goes about finding new sources, and the importance of forecasting for the world! Be sure to tune into this episode as you will learn a lot about good forecasting habits and how to perform well in tournaments.]]>3672cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-16-w-satopaeae-and-salikhov-bin-mod
Their paper, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting,” deconstructs the forecasting process into its component parts of: Information (the inputs you use to move your forecast away from the base rate), Bias (systematic error across a number of forecasts from a single forecaster), and Noise (non-information that is registered as information in a forecast). From there they test which of these parts is most critical to the accuracy of a forecast, and posit methods to improve in these areas.

In this episode we are lucky enough to sit down with Ville and Marat to discuss the origins of this paper, its findings, and the implications for the future of forecasting. We talk about possible avenues for further research based on the exciting results from Ville and Marat’s research, and even speculate on potential applications of the research in new and interesting environments.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/955eacef-078e-3de1-8eec-b4f6555f9ccaSat, 03 Jul 2021 15:44:33 +0000Clay GraubardEvery forecaster has wanted to know what the most important factor for improving forecasting accuracy is, but for a long time the answer was not clear. Thanks to a chance overlap of co-authors Ville Satopää and Marat Salikhov at INSEAD, however, a new...
Their paper, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting,” deconstructs the forecasting process into its component parts of: Information (the inputs you use to move your forecast away from the base rate), Bias (systematic error across a number of forecasts from a single forecaster), and Noise (non-information that is registered as information in a forecast). From there they test which of these parts is most critical to the accuracy of a forecast, and posit methods to improve in these areas.

In this episode we are lucky enough to sit down with Ville and Marat to discuss the origins of this paper, its findings, and the implications for the future of forecasting. We talk about possible avenues for further research based on the exciting results from Ville and Marat’s research, and even speculate on potential applications of the research in new and interesting environments.]]>3798cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/datscilly-the-top-ranked-forecaster-on-m
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing ]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/32523bdc-239c-3dff-a14a-1558eccd9338Thu, 17 Jun 2021 19:29:33 +0000Clay GraubardIn episode 5 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay talks to Datscilly, the top-ranked forecaster on the Metaculus leaderboards, who only 18 months after first forecasting won nearly $50,000 in the IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 where he placed...
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing ]]>3758cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-15-w-phillip-orchard-geopolitical-f
For those who aren’t aware, Geopolitical Futures is a geopolitical forecasting operation founded by George Friedman, former Stratfor Chairman and author of The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Within the organization Phillip focuses on the Indo-Pacific, working to inform clients about risks stemming from that region of the world. Phillip is an expert in Chinese foreign policy and has developed a deep understanding of the geopolitics dynamics at play in the greater East Asian and Southeast Asian regions of the world. He even speaks some Thai!



Watch until the end to hear a new rapid fire question we gave Phillip given his areas of interest/expertise. And although this isn’t The Right Side of Maybe, we did ask Phillip about some specific forecasts he’s completed that we felt were notable, so enjoy our discussion of some forecast post-mortems. You can find Phillip on Twitter: @PhillipOrchard.

Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/e87111a7-3409-3b93-a960-7291250fe757Sat, 05 Jun 2021 15:31:17 +0000Clay GraubardHow do the biggest geopolitical risk firms approach forecasting? What’s the future of tensions between the United States and China? How hard is it to forecast far into the future? In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we sat down with...
For those who aren’t aware, Geopolitical Futures is a geopolitical forecasting operation founded by George Friedman, former Stratfor Chairman and author of The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Within the organization Phillip focuses on the Indo-Pacific, working to inform clients about risks stemming from that region of the world. Phillip is an expert in Chinese foreign policy and has developed a deep understanding of the geopolitics dynamics at play in the greater East Asian and Southeast Asian regions of the world. He even speaks some Thai!



Watch until the end to hear a new rapid fire question we gave Phillip given his areas of interest/expertise. And although this isn’t The Right Side of Maybe, we did ask Phillip about some specific forecasts he’s completed that we felt were notable, so enjoy our discussion of some forecast post-mortems. You can find Phillip on Twitter: @PhillipOrchard.

Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing]]>2871cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/how-superforecaster-carolyn-meinel-predi
This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and top-ranked superforecaster—about her experience in the hacking world, forecasting best practices and frameworks, as well as Carolyn’s prediction about the Code Red worm which turned out on the right side of maybe. If you have interest in the intersection of forecasting and cyberwarfare, or want to be graced with interesting anecdotes about the science world from the 1970s to 2000s, this is the episode for you.

Find Carolyn Meinel: https://twitter.com/cmeinel
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing ]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/30824173-2420-3871-8173-9c8d47c5066bThu, 03 Jun 2021 20:59:20 +0000Clay GraubardWhat do you get when you combine a veteran superforecaster with an experienced hacker and innovator? You get our guest for episode 4 of The Right Side of Maybe! This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and...
This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and top-ranked superforecaster—about her experience in the hacking world, forecasting best practices and frameworks, as well as Carolyn’s prediction about the Code Red worm which turned out on the right side of maybe. If you have interest in the intersection of forecasting and cyberwarfare, or want to be graced with interesting anecdotes about the science world from the 1970s to 2000s, this is the episode for you.

Find Carolyn Meinel: https://twitter.com/cmeinel
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing ]]>2636cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-13-a-metaculus-mondays-special-2021
In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly Podcast and Metaculus Mondays, we walk you through an internally-generated set of questions about the conflict which we forecasted this week. Instead of answering a single question related to a potential ceasefire or death-tally, we decomposed the conflict into six questions that we felt give a good high-level view of where we are in the conflict, and where it may end up. And as there was no question on this topic on Metaculus this week, we determined our own resolution criteria as well!

Read the episode, get our sources and data, and find the Metaculus questions at globalguessing.com.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/5cdc0f7f-b877-33a1-a2e3-0b2beedf8d18Tue, 18 May 2021 15:11:53 +0000Clay GraubardWhat’s been going on with Israel and Palestine since last Monday? How far along in the conflict are we? Is this flare-up between these two nations any different from past years? In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly...
In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly Podcast and Metaculus Mondays, we walk you through an internally-generated set of questions about the conflict which we forecasted this week. Instead of answering a single question related to a potential ceasefire or death-tally, we decomposed the conflict into six questions that we felt give a good high-level view of where we are in the conflict, and where it may end up. And as there was no question on this topic on Metaculus this week, we determined our own resolution criteria as well!

Read the episode, get our sources and data, and find the Metaculus questions at globalguessing.com.]]>3416cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-11-w-tom-liptay-and-michael-story-f
In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Tom Liptay and Michael Story, co-founders of Maby, Superforecasters, and former alumnus of Good Judgement. Maby is a forecasting platform created to help companies and investors forecast more accurately. Companies often have internal ways of forecasting revenues or market trends, but few use the systematic and scientific techniques and methodologies of quantified forecasting that we like to explore at Global Guessing. Hear about Maby, and Tom & Michael’s journey to forecasting in this exciting episode.

Tom Liptay: https://twitter.com/TLiptay

Michael Story: https://twitter.com/MWStory

Website: https://globalguessing.com/​​

Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing​​

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-guessing/



Note: We originally planned for this episode to come out next week. However, due to a scheduling issue we had to push this episode forward. This is why you'll hear us reference the episode as episode 12 rather than 11.]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/934bd045-21f0-3bbc-9373-203cd33173cdSat, 01 May 2021 13:57:52 +0000Clay GraubardHow do companies use forecasting? When will forecasting, as we practice it at Global Guessing, become more common and mainstream? What tools can I use to forecast better? If you’re curious about the answers to any of these questions, then this episode...
In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Tom Liptay and Michael Story, co-founders of Maby, Superforecasters, and former alumnus of Good Judgement. Maby is a forecasting platform created to help companies and investors forecast more accurately. Companies often have internal ways of forecasting revenues or market trends, but few use the systematic and scientific techniques and methodologies of quantified forecasting that we like to explore at Global Guessing. Hear about Maby, and Tom & Michael’s journey to forecasting in this exciting episode.

Tom Liptay: https://twitter.com/TLiptay

Michael Story: https://twitter.com/MWStory

Website: https://globalguessing.com/​​

Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing​​

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-guessing/



Note: We originally planned for this episode to come out next week. However, due to a scheduling issue we had to push this episode forward. This is why you'll hear us reference the episode as episode 12 rather than 11.]]>3741cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/how-peter-hurford-forecasted-the-ever-gi
In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve.

Find Peter Hurford: https://twitter.com/peterhurford

Rethink Priorities: https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/

Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/ee02bb3c-9b93-3ef3-9bee-28c6a53b51d6Thu, 08 Apr 2021 20:29:57 +0000Clay GraubardWhen the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than...
In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve.

Find Peter Hurford: https://twitter.com/peterhurford

Rethink Priorities: https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/

Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup]]>2360cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-6-w-saar-wilf-what-is-rootclaim-syrglobalguessing.podbean.com/d492d712-8a7d-3d46-be5d-9f1d7258cd4eSat, 27 Mar 2021 06:54:04 +0000Clay GraubardIn the sixth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly #Podcast we sit down with Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf. Saar goes over his entrepreneurial background and discusses the story and method behind Rootclaim. In the podcast, we question Saar on some of...5059cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-5-us-china-summit-new-forecasting-aglobalguessing.podbean.com/de8087bb-bf80-371b-b1e5-42cd01df04f1Sat, 20 Mar 2021 06:01:01 +0000Clay GraubardWe review the new books that we've been reading on forecasting and geopolitics. We also cover the major geopolitical stories of the week, including the US-China Summit in Alaska, new North Korean tensions, and the status of US troop withdrawal from...2796cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-3-metaculus-scoring-controversy-fut
 ]]>globalguessing.podbean.com/aa031789-2a76-3c5c-bee1-12693bb23f7fSat, 06 Mar 2021 20:07:53 +0000Clay GraubardAndrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical...
 ]]>3810cleanfullhttps://www.spreaker.com/user/14336062/ggwp-1-w-dr-balkan-devlen-theory-in-foreglobalguessing.podbean.com/cda8b684-dceb-3ef9-9abf-0bbfa0e0bf7fSat, 20 Feb 2021 04:59:55 +0000Clay GraubardFor the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his...2953cleanfull